Special Economic Report: April 9, 2020

The Dow exited its bear market on March 26th, when it closed up by more than 20% from its lowest close. Currently, the Dow is now up 26.04% from its lowest close.
The S&P finally followed suit and exited its bear market yesterday when it surged past 2,684.88, before finally closing at 2,749.98, up 22.91% from its lowest close.The Nasdaq is not that far behind. It is now up 17.93% from its lowest close. But a close at or above 8,232.80 sees it exiting its bear market. And that’s only another 1.75% away.

We also saw crude oil soar by more than 10% ahead of today’s emergency OPEC meeting where Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to cut production.

But the biggest piece of good news came from the fight against the coronavirus. It appears all of the social distancing measures are indeed bending the curve, and that we’ll dodge the worst case scenario.

Gone are the predictions for up to 240,000 deaths. Now predictions are for 60,000 by early August. Still a tragedy. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number lowered again as time goes by, that is my hope.

While we’ll likely all be stuck inside for the rest of the month, planning is underway for how to reopen the economy. Will it be a partial open with certain regions going first and others to follow, or will it all open at once?

Nobody yet knows what that will look like. But it’s a conversation we could’ve only dreamed about a few short weeks ago. Now we’re planning for its actual implementation in the very near future.

In the meantime, we still have to take care of our businesses and employees that are temporarily out of work.

To date, there have been $100 billion in small business loans already processed, which is estimated to have saved as many as 9.5 million jobs.

But that money is going fast and the original $350 billion is expected to be tapped out within the next few days/weeks.

Because of this, congress is expected to pass an additional $250 billion in small business loans this week to further help business and workers stay afloat for the next month or two until the economy reopens.

And once it does, this lifeline will allow everybody to hit the ground running.

But remember, the market is forward looking. It doesn’t wait for the all clear sign before moving up. It does so ahead of time.

Good news is finally coming now which is helping alleviate our deepest fears and move the markets higher. We still need to understand that it is going to be bumpy ride over the next 3-6 months. We have not altered our Asset Allocation and remain cautiously optimistic about where we will be one year from now.

If anyone needs our help please don’t hesitate to reach out to us and set up a meeting to discuss your situation in more detail. This week of optimism and good news is something I think we were all in need of. I hope you and your families are healthy and safe.





Robert G. Carpenter

President & CEO
Baltimore-Washington Financial Advisors