Markets ended slightly lower last week as geopolitical and trade-related news weighed on sentiment. The U.S. announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, ranging from 20% to 50%, to take effect August 1, prompting trader caution. Stocks reached new highs midweek before pulling back on Friday following remarks about potential sanctions on Russia, which pushed oil prices higher. Technology stocks held up relatively well, while cyclicals and small caps lagged. Gold and the dollar both advanced as safe-haven demand increased. U.S. copper prices hit all-time highs after a proposed 50% tariff on imports of the metal.
Last Week’s Economic News
- The U.S. Treasury recorded a $27.0 billion budget surplus in June, helping reduce the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.337 trillion.
- National average gas prices fell to $3.125 per gallon as of July 7, 36 cents lower than a year ago.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 5 totaled 227,000, down 5,000 from the previous week. Continuing claims increased to 1.965 million—the highest level since November 2021.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Key inflation data is due this week, with the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and retail sales report all on the calendar. Investors will be watching for early signs that recent tariff threats are beginning to influence prices and consumer behavior. Housing starts, import/export data, and industrial production will also be closely monitored for insights into economic momentum.
Have a nice week!
Sincerely,
Robert G. Carpenter