Stocks pushed higher into month-end, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing at fresh records while the Nasdaq advanced and small caps outperformed. Gains were led by megacap tech (AI and semis), alongside strength in financials. Bond yields drifted lower on rising odds of a September Fed cut; the 10-year Treasury ended near 4.22% (down 14 bps on the month). Crude slid on oversupply and softer demand signals, while gold extended its monthly winning streak as the dollar weakened.
Last Week’s Economic News
- Inflation & spending (July): Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y; headline PCE up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Personal income and disposable income both +0.4%; consumer spending +0.5%.
- CPI/PPI (July): CPI +0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y); core CPI +0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y). PPI +0.9% m/m (3.3% y/y); core PPI +0.9% m/m (3.7% y/y).
- GDP (Q2, second estimate): Real GDP +3.3% (rebound from -0.5% in Q1), driven by +1.6% consumer spending and a sharp drop in imports.
- Labor market: Jobless claims (week ending 8/23) at 229,000; continuing claims at 1.95M. July payrolls showed +73,000 jobs; unemployment at 4.2%, participation at 62.2%.
- Housing (July): Existing-home sales +2.0% m/m; new-home sales -0.6% m/m. Median prices: $422,400 (existing), $403,800 (new).
- Durable goods (July): -2.8% headline; ex-transportation +1.1%.
- Trade & prices: Import prices +0.4% m/m; export prices +0.1% m/m. Goods trade deficit widened to $103.6B.
- Gasoline: National average $3.147/gal (as of 8/25).
Eye on the Week Ahead
All eyes turn to Friday’s August jobs report for confirmation of a slowing labor market. Investors will watch wage and participation trends closely ahead of the September Fed meeting. ISM manufacturing and services data, plus early September sentiment readings, round out the week.
Have a nice week!
Sincerely,
Robert G. Carpenter